Covid-19 deaths: Which governments have failed?

Posted by in Economics, Health, Politics

The latest worldwide average death rate is 43 per one million people, up from 39 one week ago. Figures are from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control situation report to Saturday 23rd May. Here’s the updated list of countries with death rates more than twice that average:

Territory/Area Country Deaths per million
Europe San Marino 1208
Europe Belgium 795
Europe Andorra 660
Europe Spain 612
Europe Italy 539
Europe The United Kingdom 536
Europe France 433
Europe Sweden 389
Americas Sint Maarten 350
Europe Netherlands 338
Europe Ireland 322
Americas United States of America 290
Europe Jersey 287
Europe Isle of Man 282
Americas Montserrat 200
Europe Guernsey 194
Europe Switzerland 189
Europe Luxembourg 174
Americas Ecuador 173
Americas Canada 166
Americas Bermuda 145
Europe Monaco 127
Europe Portugal 126
Americas Brazil 99
Americas Peru 98
Europe Germany 98
Europe Denmark 97
Eastern Mediterranean Iran 87

Death rates are the best measures of a national government’s effectiveness, because in many countries with poor pandemic management, the total number of cases is severely under-reported.

From these results, it is clear that many nations which put business ahead of evidence-based health advice have higher death rates. Some nations with lower death rates have also benefited from being able to learn from nations hit earlier, or due to low visitor numbers from China. Others had established pandemic testing expertise and/or social isolation cultures for influenza, and possibly better immune profiles yet to be understood.

The second table below shows nations with death rates already above the worldwide average ranked by percentage increase in the last two weeks, to highlight those governments whose current pandemic management is not effective:

Country Deaths/M-2weeks Deaths/M Percent change
Mexico 25 54 116
Brazil 47 99 111
Peru 52 98 88
Ecuador 97 173 78
Canada 121 166 37
Bermuda 112 145 29
Romania 47 60 28
Panama 54 68 26
Monaco 102 127 25
Sweden 314 389 24
Hungary 42 50 19
Puerto Rico 37 44 19
Finland 47 55 17
Jersey 247 287 16
Portugal 109 126 16
Turkey 44 51 16
Estonia 42 48 14
Iran 78 87 12
Germany 88 98 11
Ireland 289 322 11
Denmark 88 97 10
Andorra 608 660 9
Luxembourg 160 174 9
Belgium 735 795 8
France 402 433 8
Italy 500 539 8
Netherlands 313 338 8
Switzerland 176 189 7
Slovenia 48 51 6
Austria 68 71 4
Isle of Man 270 282 4

The long term picture is still unclear. These results will be revised each weekend, or you can view a chart and add your own selection of data and countries at this link: Ourworldindata.org

Under-reporting of rest-home deaths in the UK have now been revised, but many other nations will never report accurate totals. Citizens there will get an indication of trend from public statistics, but must judge the true scale of deaths from community and hospital experience. However, post-pandemic statistics on unexplained changes in national death rates will eventually reveal the extent of these cover-ups.

Full table for all countries below:

Territory/Area Country Deaths per million
Europe San Marino 1208
Europe Belgium 795
Europe Andorra 660
Europe Spain 612
Europe Italy 539
Europe The United Kingdom 536
Europe France 433
Europe Sweden 389
Americas Sint Maarten 350
Europe Netherlands 338
Europe Ireland 322
Americas United States of America 290
Europe Jersey 287
Europe Isle of Man 282
Americas Montserrat 200
Europe Guernsey 194
Europe Switzerland 189
Europe Luxembourg 174
Americas Ecuador 173
Americas Canada 166
Americas Bermuda 145
Europe Monaco 127
Europe Portugal 126
Americas Brazil 99
Americas Peru 98
Europe Germany 98
Europe Denmark 97
Eastern Mediterranean Iran 87
Europe Austria 71
Americas Panama 68
Europe Romania 60
Europe Republic of Moldova 59
Americas US Virgin Islands 57
Europe Finland 55
Americas Mexico 54
Europe North Macedonia 54
Europe Slovenia 51
Europe Turkey 51
Europe Hungary 50
Europe Estonia 48
Americas Puerto Rico 44
Europe Bosnia and Herzegovina 43
Europe Norway 43
Americas Dominican Republic 42
Africa São Tomé, Príncipe 37
Europe Serbia 35
Western Pacific Northern Mariana Islands 35
Americas British Virgin Islands 33
Americas Chile 33
Eastern Mediterranean Kuwait 32
Europe Israel 32
Americas Antigua and Barbuda 31
Western Pacific Guam 30
Europe Czechia 29
Europe Iceland 29
Americas Aruba 28
Americas Bahamas 28
Americas Turks and Caicos Islands 26
Europe Liechtenstein 26
Europe Poland 26
Europe Armenia 25
Americas Barbados 24
Eastern Mediterranean United Arab Emirates 24
Europe Croatia 24
Europe Lithuania 22
Europe Russian Federation 22
Americas Bolivia 20
Europe Belarus 20
Europe Cyprus 19
Europe Bulgaria 18
Americas Honduras 17
Europe Greece 16
Americas Cayman Islands 15
Europe Kosovo 15
Europe Malta 14
Europe Montenegro 14
Africa Algeria 13
Americas Colombia 13
Americas Guyana 13
Europe Ukraine 13
Europe Latvia 12
Europe Albania 11
Americas Argentina 10
Eastern Mediterranean Djibouti 10
Eastern Mediterranean Saudi Arabia 10
Africa Mauritius 8
Western Pacific Philippines 8
Africa Equatorial Guinea 7
Africa South Africa 7
Americas Cuba 7
Eastern Mediterranean Bahrain 7
Eastern Mediterranean Egypt 7
Eastern Mediterranean Qatar 7
South-East Asia Maldives 7
Africa Cameroon 6
Americas Curaçao 6
Americas Trinidad and Tobago 6
Americas Uruguay 6
Eastern Mediterranean Oman 6
Western Pacific Japan 6
Africa Cabo Verde 5
Africa Gabon 5
Africa Liberia 5
Africa Sierra Leone 5
Americas Belize 5
Americas El Salvador 5
Eastern Mediterranean Afghanistan 5
Eastern Mediterranean Morocco 5
Eastern Mediterranean Pakistan 5
Europe Azerbaijan 5
Europe Slovakia 5
Europe Tajikistan 5
South-East Asia Indonesia 5
Western Pacific Republic of Korea 5
Africa Chad 4
Eastern Mediterranean Iraq 4
Eastern Mediterranean Lebanon 4
Eastern Mediterranean Somalia 4
Eastern Mediterranean Tunisia 4
Western Pacific Australia 4
Western Pacific Malaysia 4
Western Pacific New Zealand 4
Western Pacific Singapore 4
Africa Congo 3
Africa Guinea-Bissau 3
Africa Mali 3
Americas Guatemala 3
Americas Jamaica 3
Americas Nicaragua 3
Eastern Mediterranean Sudan 3
Europe Georgia 3
South-East Asia Bangladesh 3
South-East Asia India 3
Western Pacific China 3
Africa Burkina Faso 2
Africa Eswatini 2
Africa Niger 2
Africa Senegal 2
Americas Costa Rica 2
Americas Haiti 2
Americas Paraguay 2
Americas Suriname 2
Europe Kazakhstan 2
Europe Kyrgyzstan 2
Western Pacific Brunei Darussalam 2
Africa Comoros 1
Africa Côte d’Ivoire 1
Africa Democratic Republic Congo 1
Africa Ghana 1
Africa Guinea 1
Africa Kenya 1
Africa Mauritania 1
Africa Nigeria 1
Africa South Sudan 1
Africa Togo 1
Eastern Mediterranean Jordan 1
Eastern Mediterranean Palestine 1
Eastern Mediterranean Yemen 1
South-East Asia Thailand 1
Africa Angola 0
Africa Benin 0
Africa Botswana 0
Africa Burundi 0
Africa Central African Republic 0
Africa Eritrea 0
Africa Ethiopia 0
Africa Gambia 0
Africa Lesotho 0
Africa Madagascar 0
Africa Malawi 0
Africa Mozambique 0
Africa Namibia 0
Africa Rwanda 0
Africa Seychelles 0
Africa Tanzania 0
Africa Uganda 0
Africa Zambia 0
Africa Zimbabwe 0
Americas Anguilla 0
Americas Bonaire, Sint Eustatius, Saba 0
Americas Dominica 0
Americas Falkland Islands 0
Americas Grenada 0
Americas Saint Kitts and Nevis 0
Americas Saint Lucia 0
Americas Saint Vincent, Grenadines 0
Americas Venezuela 0
Eastern Mediterranean Libya 0
Eastern Mediterranean Syrian Arab Republic 0
Europe Faroe Islands 0
Europe Gibraltar 0
Europe Greenland 0
Europe Holy See 0
Europe Uzbekistan 0
South-East Asia Bhutan 0
South-East Asia Myanmar 0
South-East Asia Nepal 0
South-East Asia Sri Lanka 0
South-East Asia Timor-Leste 0
Western Pacific Cambodia 0
Western Pacific Fiji 0
Western Pacific French Polynesia 0
Western Pacific Laos 0
Western Pacific Mongolia 0
Western Pacific New Caledonia 0
Western Pacific Papua New Guinea 0
Western Pacific Taiwan 0
Western Pacific Viet Nam 0

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) – Situation Report Worldwide, 23 May 2020.