Covid-19 deaths: Which governments have failed?

Posted by in Economics, Health, Politics

The latest worldwide average death rate is 47 per one million people, up from 43 one week ago. Figures are from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control situation report to Saturday 30th May. Here’s the updated list of countries with death rates more than twice that average:

Territory/Area Country Deaths per million
Europe San Marino 1238
Europe Belgium 815
Europe Andorra 660
Europe Spain 580
Europe United Kingdom 562
Europe Italy 550
Europe France 440
Europe Sweden 431
Americas Sint Maarten (Dutch part) 350
Europe Netherlands 346
Europe Ireland 333
Americas United States 311
Europe Jersey 287
Europe Isle of Man 282
Americas Montserrat 200
Europe Guernsey 194
Europe Switzerland 191
Americas Ecuador 189
Americas Canada 185
Europe Luxembourg 176
Americas Bermuda 145
Europe Portugal 136
Americas Brazil 131
Americas Peru 128
Europe Monaco 127
Europe Germany 101
Europe Denmark 98

Death rates are the best measures of a national government’s effectiveness, because in many countries with poor pandemic management, the total number of cases is severely under-reported. From these results, it is clear that many nations which put business ahead of evidence-based health advice have higher death rates.

Some nations with lower death rates have also benefited from being able to learn from nations hit earlier, or due to low visitor numbers from China. Others had established pandemic testing expertise and/or social isolation cultures for influenza, and possibly better immune profiles yet to be understood.

The second table below shows nations with death rates already above the worldwide average ranked by percentage increase in the last two weeks, to highlight those governments whose current pandemic management is not proving effective:

Country Deaths/M-2weeks Deaths/M Percent change
Chile 21 49 133
Mexico 37 73 97
Brazil 70 131 87
Peru 73 128 75
Sao Tome and Principe 32 55 72
Moldova 49 71 45
Ecuador 147 189 29
Macedonia 47 60 28
Canada 147 185 26
Panama 62 76 23
Sweden 361 431 19
Hungary 46 54 17
United States 265 311 17
Portugal 117 136 16
Romania 55 64 16
United Kingdom 501 562 12
Iran 82 91 11
Turkey 48 53 10
Estonia 47 51 9
Finland 53 57 8
Ireland 307 333 8
Germany 94 101 7
Jersey 267 287 7
Austria 70 74 6
Luxembourg 166 176 6
Belgium 773 815 5
Denmark 93 98 5
Italy 523 550 5
Netherlands 329 346 5
Andorra 634 660 4
France 422 440 4
Slovenia 50 52 4
Switzerland 184 191 4
San Marino 1208 1238 2

The long term picture is still unclear. These results will be revised each weekend, or you can view a chart and add your own selection of data and countries at this link: Ourworldindata.org

Under-reporting of rest-home deaths in the UK have now been revised, but many other nations will never report accurate totals. Citizens there will get an indication of trend from public statistics, but must judge the true scale of deaths from community and hospital experience. However, post-pandemic statistics on unexplained changes in national death rates will eventually reveal the extent of these cover-ups.

Full table for all countries below:

Territory/Area Country Deaths per million
Europe San Marino 1238
Europe Belgium 815
Europe Andorra 660
Europe Spain 580
Europe United Kingdom 562
Europe Italy 550
Europe France 440
Europe Sweden 431
Americas Sint Maarten (Dutch part) 350
Europe Netherlands 346
Europe Ireland 333
Americas United States 311
Europe Jersey 287
Europe Isle of Man 282
Americas Montserrat 200
Europe Guernsey 194
Europe Switzerland 191
Americas Ecuador 189
Americas Canada 185
Europe Luxembourg 176
Americas Bermuda 145
Europe Portugal 136
Americas Brazil 131
Americas Peru 128
Europe Monaco 127
Europe Germany 101
Europe Denmark 98
Eastern Mediterranean Iran 91
Americas Panama 76
Europe Austria 74
Americas Mexico 73
Europe Moldova 71
Europe Romania 64
Europe Macedonia 60
Americas United States Virgin Islands 57
Europe Finland 57
Africa Sao Tome and Principe 55
Europe Hungary 54
Europe Turkey 53
Europe Slovenia 52
Europe Estonia 51
Americas Chile 49
Europe Bosnia and Herzegovina 47
Americas Puerto Rico 46
Americas Dominican Republic 45
Eastern Mediterranean Kuwait 45
Europe Norway 44
Europe Armenia 40
Europe Serbia 36
Western Pacific Northern Mariana Islands 35
Americas British Virgin Islands 33
Europe Israel 33
Americas Antigua and Barbuda 31
Europe Czech Republic 30
Europe Russia 30
Western Pacific Guam 30
Europe Iceland 29
Americas Aruba 28
Americas Bahamas 28
Europe Poland 28
Americas Bolivia 26
Americas Turks and Caicos Islands 26
Eastern Mediterranean United Arab Emirates 26
Europe Liechtenstein 26
Europe Croatia 25
Europe Lithuania 25
Americas Barbados 24
Europe Belarus 24
Americas Honduras 20
Eastern Mediterranean Djibouti 20
Europe Bulgaria 20
Europe Cyprus 19
Americas Colombia 17
Europe Greece 17
Europe Kosovo 16
Europe Malta 16
Europe Ukraine 16
Africa Algeria 15
Americas Cayman Islands 15
Americas Guyana 14
Europe Montenegro 14
Eastern Mediterranean Saudi Arabia 13
Europe Latvia 13
Americas Argentina 12
Eastern Mediterranean Qatar 12
Europe Albania 11
Africa South Africa 10
Africa Equatorial Guinea 9
Eastern Mediterranean Bahrain 9
Eastern Mediterranean Egypt 9
South-East Asia Maldives 9
Western Pacific Philippines 9
Africa Mauritius 8
Eastern Mediterranean Oman 8
Africa Cameroon 7
Africa Cape Verde 7
Africa Gabon 7
Americas Cuba 7
Americas El Salvador 7
Western Pacific Japan 7
Africa Sierra Leone 6
Americas Curacao 6
Americas Trinidad and Tobago 6
Americas Uruguay 6
Eastern Mediterranean Afghanistan 6
Eastern Mediterranean Pakistan 6
Europe Azerbaijan 6
South-East Asia Indonesia 6
Africa Liberia 5
Americas Belize 5
Americas Guatemala 5
Americas Nicaragua 5
Eastern Mediterranean Iraq 5
Eastern Mediterranean Morocco 5
Eastern Mediterranean Somalia 5
Eastern Mediterranean Sudan 5
Europe Slovakia 5
Europe Tajikistan 5
Western Pacific Brunei 5
Western Pacific New Zealand 5
Western Pacific South Korea 5
Africa Chad 4
Africa Guinea-Bissau 4
Africa Mali 4
Africa Mauritania 4
Eastern Mediterranean Lebanon 4
Eastern Mediterranean Tunisia 4
South-East Asia Bangladesh 4
South-East Asia India 4
Western Pacific Australia 4
Western Pacific Malaysia 4
Western Pacific Singapore 4
Africa Burkina Faso 3
Africa Congo 3
Africa Niger 3
Americas Haiti 3
Americas Jamaica 3
Europe Georgia 3
Western Pacific China 3
Africa Comoros 2
Africa Guinea 2
Africa Senegal 2
Africa Swaziland 2
Africa Togo 2
Africa Western Sahara 2
Americas Costa Rica 2
Americas Paraguay 2
Americas Suriname 2
Eastern Mediterranean Yemen 2
Europe Kazakhstan 2
Europe Kyrgyzstan 2
Africa Cote d’Ivoire 1
Africa Democratic Republic of Congo 1
Africa Ghana 1
Africa Kenya 1
Africa Nigeria 1
Africa South Sudan 1
Eastern Mediterranean Jordan 1
Eastern Mediterranean Libya 1
Eastern Mediterranean Palestine 1
South-East Asia Thailand 1
Africa Angola 0
Africa Benin 0
Africa Botswana 0
Africa Burundi 0
Africa Central African Republic 0
Africa Eritrea 0
Africa Ethiopia 0
Africa Gambia 0
Africa Lesotho 0
Africa Madagascar 0
Africa Malawi 0
Africa Mozambique 0
Africa Namibia 0
Africa Rwanda 0
Africa Seychelles 0
Africa Tanzania 0
Africa Uganda 0
Africa Zambia 0
Africa Zimbabwe 0
Americas Anguilla 0
Americas Bonaire Sint Eustatius and Saba 0
Americas Dominica 0
Americas Falkland Islands 0
Americas Grenada 0
Americas Saint Kitts and Nevis 0
Americas Saint Lucia 0
Americas Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 0
Americas Venezuela 0
Eastern Mediterranean Syria 0
Europe Faeroe Islands 0
Europe Gibraltar 0
Europe Greenland 0
Europe Uzbekistan 0
Europe Vatican 0
South-East Asia Bhutan 0
South-East Asia Myanmar 0
South-East Asia Nepal 0
South-East Asia Sri Lanka 0
South-East Asia Timor 0
Western Pacific Cambodia 0
Western Pacific Fiji 0
Western Pacific French Polynesia 0
Western Pacific Laos 0
Western Pacific Mongolia 0
Western Pacific New Caledonia 0
Western Pacific Papua New Guinea 0
Western Pacific Taiwan 0
Western Pacific Vietnam 0

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) – Situation Report Worldwide, 30 May 2020.