Trump: volatility up, millions of jobs lost
Trump will cut taxes, therefore government jobs, and strengthen protectionism. Probably, more jobs will be lost than gained so that’s bad news for America, and protectionism is very bad news for the rest of the world – the Mexican peso has fallen more than 12 percent against the U.S. dollar since Trump’s win.
Just how bad will it get? The downturn under a President Trump would last longer than the Great Recession. About 3.5 million Americans would lose their jobs, unemployment would jump back to 7%, home prices would fall, and the stock market would plummet. The super rich would get richer and everyone else would be worse off, Moody’s concludes.
In contrast, Moody’s estimated that if Clinton’s Democratic proposals had been enacted, the economy would create 10.4 million jobs during her presidency, or 3.2 million more than expected under current law. Sadly, American’s are just too chauvinist to elect a women ahead of a creep who talks tough.
Rob Carnell, chief international economist at ING Bank, said aggressive protectionism espoused by Trump is likely to be the greatest threat to U.S. growth while expansionary fiscal policy could offset some of the adverse impact and a December rate increase from the Fed is much less likely. Here come the currency wars…
Economists, 370 of them including eight Nobel prize winners, denounced Trump saying “He misinforms the electorate, degrades trust in public institutions with conspiracy theories, and promotes wilful delusion over engagement with reality”.
Most investors will do just fine, since they focus on profits from bets on price volatility rather than investing for productivity these days. When it all turns to custard, they’ll put their takings into safe bonds (government debt in rich countries) and leave the consequences to taxpayers, workers and poorer nations.